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Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Black Friday and Cyber Monday Special
Tools to Predict and Monitor Competitor Traffic
Posted by Sam Crocker
Today we're going to break down a number of different tools and resources for getting insights into competitors traffic data. We have looked at a handful of tools here and will break them down one by one as to their strengths and weaknesses, as well as the validity and usefulness of the data provided. Ultimately we just wanted to share with you some other information sources out there that you can add to SEOmoz's list of tools that are great for competitor analysis (my personal favourites being the Linkscape Visualization and Comparison tool as well as the Competitive Link Research tool).
However, I have had a number of clients asking me for a better view of overall market size and what kind of traffic their competitors are getting. Despite the fact that this has, unfortunately, at times meant crushing a few dreams about who a genuine/realistic competitor is or should be (i.e. NOT mashable if you are a new site) it can be tricky to find meaningful predictive data even when you know who your competitors are.
The Failed Experiment
Initially I wanted this to be an experiment testing out a number of services and running them against Analytics data to compare like for like and find which sites provided the most accurate information. I compiled Analytics data from 25 websites with hopes of comparing the real numbers (from Analytics) against the predictions of the other tools to try to find which was the most reliable across a number of sites from different sectors with a range of monthly traffic from ~1,000 monthly visitors to over 48,000,000 monthly visitors.
The idea was to report on data across a number of these platforms for average monthly visits, total yearly visits, geographical visits and so forth. Unfortunately, there were many fewer tools that provided this data than I initially anticipated and it quickly became clear that we weren't going to be able to compare apples to apples and there is no substitute for internal data... but through the combination of some of the below tools you can get a good idea of what sort of traffic your competitors sites are getting.
So, the experiment was a bit of a failure, but I learned more than my fair share about the tools so let's have a look at which tools are available and which tasks/comparisons they can be used for. I'm hanging on to all the data I collected and at a future date (if I ever hear back from some of the data sources) I will post a follow-up/re-do of the experiment.
The Tool Belt
It is worth pointing out that a number of these sites suggest they can provide better data if you claim the site(s) in question. I cannot testify to the accuracy of this because we have not looked into this (and could not feasibly claim the data for all 25 sites), also, all comments are based upon the free version of the tools as we did not have paid access to any of the tools.
Alexa
Strengths:
Alexa is good for comparing different sites traffic and for monitoring general traffic trends. It can be quite useful for comparing one site to a competitor site (up to 5 sites at a time).
The index is massive and contains some data about all of the 25 sites we tested.
Weaknesses:
Not so great for the smaller sites. As you can see below, you won't get any of the traffic charts for sites ranked outside of the top 100,000 (which means if you Alexa thinks you are getting any fewer than 10,000 visits per month you're unlikely to glean any great information.
Accuracy is a serious concern. This does taint the usefullness of the tool in general.
The numbers reported are not helpful for predicting traffic on their own.
Accuracy:
We want to keep this all anonymous but let's just say one site that we know gets 10-20,000 visits per month had an Alexa rank that was more than 5 times better than a site that we know gets 75,000+ visitors per month. And this was not just a one-off event.
I would have to seriously quetsion the reliability of this tool. It didn't seem to be too bad at predicting the trends for a single site but the charts are extremely difficult to make any real use of. The information on bounce rate seems fairly accurate (give or take a few percent) but the trends for bounce rate seemed much less accurate (e.g. the ups and downs did not seem to correspond with similar peaks and valleys in Analytics).
Perhaps most interestingly it seems to be skewed in favour of sites within the search marketing space. Sites in the search marketing space that we looked at regulary outranked sites receiving more than 10 times as much traffic on a monthly basis.
How to best use Alexa?
The tool is interesting for comparing similar sites or sites within an industry. I would like to recommend the tool but based upon my experience and this particular data set I would have to say I would be very cautious about using this to make any meaningful suggestions or estimates on traffic data. It is a great concept for a site but does not seem to have been particularly accurate.
The most accurate data seemed to be the data from the visitors by country (the order was fairly accurate and the percentages we looked at were not to far off). To the extent that this data would be useful to have for your competitors this would be one good use of Alexa data.
The insights for audience demographics could also potentially be extremely valuable, though accuracy will always be a question.
Cost:
Free. Options for site audits for $199
Compete
Strengths:
Useful interface.
Speak the right language (unique visitors, visits, etc).
Ability to compare multiple sites
Data is easy to understand and well presented.
Weaknesses:
Accuracy
Somewhat limited number of sites - many sites that it classifies as "low sample sites"
Cost of "Pro" option
Accuracy:
Again, accuracy is a serious concern here. The data was off in some cases by as much as 2,000% for monthly visits. The accuracy seemed to be a bit better for the peaks in traffic and some of the general trends we looked at, but was certainly not reliable enough for us to suggest reporting competitor traffic based upon this information.
How to best use Compete?
It should come as no surprise that Compete is best used for comparing competitors. The scale of the data is way off but some of the trends seemed to be fairly reliable. I wouldn't advise reporting any numbers from this data (as they do not seem close/reliable at all - often off by a factor of 2 or more), however the trends are reliable. The information could be meaningfully used to look into seasonal trends between competitors. The demographic information (again, not being able to comment on the accuracy) would also be quite interesting but would require registering your site.
I can't very well recommend the PRO services as I was not able to gain access and was unwilling to pay the cost just for the blog post. I would be extremely interesting in looking further into some of the referral data and the keywords data but this is not available as part of the standard free toolset.
Cost: Free. The PRO membership is $499 per month.
ComScore
Unfortunately we struggled with ComScore. We were unable to get a login or sneak a peak at any of the data. Thus, obviously we cannot comment on the validity of the data, only some of the offerings.
Strengths:
N/A
Weaknesses:
N/A
Accuracy:
N/A
Best use of ComScore:
ComScore offers a number of reports and insights into markets including reports on Local market size, as well as information about valuable/important keywords in an industry. It would be very interesting to find out where this data was coming from and how good it was, but we were not able to achieve this in time to publish this information.
Cost: N/A
Costs were not listed on the site, but rather suggest contacting ComScore directly.
Google Ad Planner
Strengths:
Sites also visited data is good
Keywords searched for can be quite valuable
Audience interests data interesting
Weaknesses:
Accuracy
Lack of data for small sites
Accuracy:
The accuracy was really mixed. For many of the sites AdPlanner provided much better data than some of the others, however, they were still off by miles for some sites - off by as much as 1000%. Again, the data on this in general tended to be better than many of the others, but given the occassional "big miss" I would not be comfortable using this data to make traffic predictions for a client.
How to best use Google Ad Planner:
The data about other sites visited as well as keywords searched for (with affinity) could be extremely valuable. As well as some of the other metrics reported on and audience interests. However, the traffic data is not particularly meangingful and is not to be relied upon.
Pro-tip: The data tends to be better when site owners have granted permission to analytics to publish data, I know we all love open and friendly, but this isn't the sort of thing you neccessarily want to make easier for your competitors to find.
Cost: Free.
Google Insights
Strengths:
Trends around Keyphrases and keyphrase groups
Regional information
Trusted source
Weaknesses:
Difficult to read the data
No hard and fast numbers about traffic
Hard to compare entire sites to one another
Accuracy:
You can bet that the accuracy of this data is going to be pretty good given that the data provider has access to more data than anyone else on the internet. However, the fact that the numbers are normalised and more designed for keyphrases and search terms and trends than for traffic data means that the search volume will correspond perfectly with the traffic to a site.
How to best use Google Insights:
Google Insights could be quite helpful for finding the most valuable pockets of keyphrases and keyphrase groups. This could be particularly valuable when looking at a competitor site and trying to figure out which of their keyphrases are driving the most traffic. Further to that point, it could help you see which of the keyphrases within a keyphrase group might be the most valuable.
Cost: Free.
Google Trends for Websites
Strengths:
Good for illustrating magnitudes of difference between sites
Allows comparison of multiple websites
Includes regional information
Weaknesses:
Not good for comparing sites fairly similar in size
Does not have information for smaller sites when logged in
Accuracy imperfect
No numbers*
Accuracy:
The data seems to be more accurate when only trying to compare traffic from search, it does not seem to do as well in picking the winning recipient of overall traffic. Given that these trends are Google Trends this is reasonable and still paints a fair landscape for an SEO's needs.
When comparing websites with drastically different traffic numbers the rough visual estimation appears to correspond quite well with the observed analytics data as well.
It's a shame there are no actual numbers for the data, but that would just be too easy.
How to best use Google Trends for Websites?
Trends is great for broad information gathering. It gives some insite into similar searches when comparing sites, and in general it is unlikely that you will find better comparative data out there without direct access to your competitor's analytics account. However, Trends does not provide numbers and thus can only be used to venture a guess at what sorts of numbers competitors are pulling in.
When two sites are relatively similar in size Google Trends does not always pick the winner in terms of monthly traffic correctly. For example, one of the sites we tested received around 7.5m monthly visits whilst another received around 8m and Google ranked the 7.5m website higher. However, it is worth noting that the 7.5m visitor site received considerably more volume from search than did the 8m visitor site so from an SEO standpoint this data is probably quite accurate.
Edit 22/11/2010 at 13:47 GMT:
Thank you very much to Jest for pointing out that this information was originally written and summarised when logged out of Google. When visiting the site logged in it does provide data (i.e. numbers/ranges). This information makes the tool considerably more valuable. I must point out that I have not had time to run this across the entire data set, though it is worth pointing out that even with the information the data looks to be off on a few of the sites I have checked. It is not as far off as the data for the same sites using AdPlanner, but still considerably far off (e.g. reporting 140k visits for a site that receives ~320k unique visits daily).
HitWise
Unfortunately we were not able to get data from HitWise in time. The HitWise team was very helpful, responsive and agreeable and we will share this data once we have gotten our hands on it. However, we had not received the data back on the websites in the study in time for publication.
Strengths:
N/A
Weaknesses:
N/A
Accuracy:
N/A
Best use of HitWise:
HitWise, similarly to comScore works on a reporting basis insofar as you speak to them about the types of market reports you would like or you can create custom reports. Whilst we obviously cannot comment on the accuracy of the data the services offered look to be better tailored to an SEOs needs than do the reports offered by comScore. However, generally speaking HitWise will not work with agencies which will be a bit of a bummer for some of you.
Cost: Free-$695+ per report
The range in cost seems to be fairly large. Whether the data warrants the pricing structure cannot really be judged without looking at the data, though they do make some data freely available through their website.
Quantcast
Strengths:
Traffic Numbers that are easy to follow
Design and display of information
Demographic information (when available)
Media Planner Tool
Weaknesses:
Unreliable
Lacks data for small-medium trafficked sites
Accuracy
Inability to compare sites
Accuracy:
Definitely the biggest shortcoming of the Quantcast data is accuracy. As with some of the other sources the traffic data is estimated and is nowhere near accurate on the sites for which Quantcast had any data. Data was off by as much as 10 times the actual analytics data for some of the sites. Again, I cannot say that I would recommend sharing any of the data with a client as an accurate predictor of a competitor's traffic.
Best Use of Quantcast:
Although the data is not particularly reliable for the traffic data some of the other tools the site has to offer seem quite interesting and worth further investigation. The demographics information is also particularly interesting because it provides a reference as to how the data compare against the internet average. This sort of data could be particularly valuable for analysing a market by compiling data across multiple sites.
Cost: Free.
SEMrush
Strengths:
Data Includes sites of all sizes
List of Keyphrases and rankings for thos terms
Most accurate numbered data of all tools looked at
Weaknesses:
Data imperfect
Pay to get full data lists
Data only for Google traffic
Accuracy:
The data was not perfectly accurate, though generally speaking SEMrush did not miss the mark for any of the sites we tested the same way a number of the other tools did. This is, obviously not to say that this data is infallible or that there won't be some issues with some sites, but the data was surprisingly accurate. As with some of the Google data the information reported is just the Google SE traffic, but this is our main area of focus and was quite accurate when drilling down into that specific area of traffic within analytics.
Best Use of SEMrush:
Although imperfect, this tool came the closest to providing accurate data that I would at least with a word of warning, be willing to share with a client about potential expectations or about where there competitors may be traffic wise. Most importantly, the add-on options and ability to see the keyword lists and how the competitor ranks for these terms is extraordinarily appealing to me.
Cost: Free-$499 per month
Conclusion
I hope that the findings from all this research will be valuable to you. At the end of the day it is an incomplete study and I look forward to following up on it when I have another big chunk of time and if/when I get access to comScore, HitWise, Compete PRO and SEMrush Pro. For the time being I would rely most heavily on SEMrush for predicting traffic and estimating how well a competitor is doing, but all of these tools add something to the ever growing toolbelt even if it may be for a purpose other than that which I was hoping they would achieve for me - we all know I love to misuse tools and I'm sure I will come up with some creative ways to use these insights.
Thanks a lot and look forward to any feedback you might have in the comments below or feel free to contact me on Twitter.
Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/seomoz/~3/PsHOk3gjuVg/monitor-competitor-traffic
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A Warning Shot or an Accident? Does it Matter?
On the 22nd of October Google had an indexing issue and a separate algorithmic change. Some of the sites associated with the indexing glitch quickly came back, whereas others seemed like they were hosed for weeks and headed toward the path of perpetual obscurity.
To give a visual of how dire this situation was for some webmasters, consider the following graphic.
The blue line is Google search traffic and the gray is total unique visitors. And since search visitors tend to monetize better than most other website visitors, the actual impact on revenues was greater than the impact on visitors. And, if you figure that sites have fixed costs (hosting, maintenance, new content creation, data licensing, marketing, etc.) then the impact on profits is even more extreme than the impact on revenues.
Hence in the search game you can go from hero to zero fast!
Search is one of the highest leverage business functions around today.
But it is also volatile. And it is a winner take most market.
When stuff heads south like that, what do you do? Do you consider it game over and try to lower costs further?
My approach to such events is to take it as a warning shot. To take it as a challenge. In the above example the traffic came back...
...but algorithms sometimes get rolled in using phases. Sometimes stuff that gets tripped up and later restored is being set up for a second fall when they refine their relevancy algorithms again. Sites that get caught in snags are sites which are fairly weak. So if you take any set back as motivation to create something better and work hard then you at least know that if you failed you tried and it just didn't work. Most likely, if you try hard, you will be able to make the site much better and not only reach your old traffic levels, but exceed them.
Even though the traffic came back for the above site, it has been getting a lot more effort. And it will continue to for months and months. The fear of loss is a great motivator to push people to create something better. Sometimes I think Google should mix up the results a bit more often just to drive people to create better stuff. :)
Source: http://www.seobook.com/warning-shot-or-accident-does-it-matter
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Are you keeping up with Google?
by Mike Moran
Image by stevegarfield via Flickr
It was only recently that a number of critics were talking about how Google is standing still and Bing is the real innovator in the search space. I think that Google Instant has quieted those critics, at least for now. Love it or hate it, Google Instant certainly is innovative and it is not the only thing going on at the Googleplex. We previewed it a few weeks ago, but it is happening for real now: Your page design matters for your SEO. But I am not sure that's even the biggest Google change of recent vintage.
So, Google Preview will get a lot of attention, as it should. It is a big change to the way searchers interact with search result pages, that places even more emphasis on how your site is designed and how your page looks than ever before.
But it is just one of several changes that have occurred over the last few weeks at the Big G, and probably not even the most important one.
Google Instant created an intense debate when it launched, with some talking about the death of SEO. I think that the waters have calmed a bit, but there is no doubt that even simple metrics such as which search engine is getting the most searches is now harder to calculate on an level playing field, because you could argue that Google counts a search query with every letter typed into the search box.
But I am more concerned about how the change affects search marketers, and the jury is very much out. Pundits are still debating what searcher behavior changes result from Google Instant. I've read that Google Instant encourages more long tail queries. I've read that Google Instant encourages more popular queries. Maybe both are true and the middle ground keywords are getting squeezed out, but I suspect that we really don't know what searcher behavior changes are here to stay. We'll need a lot more work on this and it could be that searchers themselves are still adjusting their behaviors to Google Instant and we don't know where that will lead.
But, for all the attention that these changes have rightly received, I think the biggest change surrounds local search. It is possible that as many as one in five search queries now receives a page full of local results that have completely replaced the previous organic results with what was once called the seven-pack—those short results that were listed next to a map above the old organic results. Now, these local results are completely integrated into the page, creating a whole new set of winners and losers for perhaps 20% of all search queries.
Maybe it's just me, but can you imagine the ruckus if Google made an algorithm change that completely upended the search results for 20% of search queries? There would be demands for government investigations, a spate of articles about how Google really is evil, laments from SEOs about how their business has been cratered, but folks, this is exactly what has happened. A huge swath of search results have been completely remade, and I don't think the old ways are ever coming back.
So what's a search marketer to do? Continue to focus on what is important to searchers, whether Google rewards it at the moment or not. If you invested in good design because it was the right thing to do, Google Preview will reward you. If you focused on keyword research to make sure you know what your customers want, Google Instant might be a blip on your radar. If you optimized your Place Page months ago and focused on letting customers know where your physical locations are, then the new local search results should only help you.
This shouldn't be news. After all, if you knew that videos and blogs were good for customers, and you went ahead and did them, you were laughing all the way to the bank when Universal Search was unveiled. And if you knew that investing in a faster site was good for customers, imagine your happy face when Google began factoring speed into the algorithm. At every point, it pays to do what is right for your customers even before Google rewards it. That's a lot smarter strategy than waiting until Google changes the game and then scrambling to catch up.
To me, the best way to keep up with Google is to continually focus on what your customers need, and then let Google eventually catch up to you.
Be sure and visit our small business news site.
Source: http://www.searchengineguide.com/mike-moran/are-you-keeping-up-with-google.php
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The 12-Step Program for Online Marketing
by Stoney deGeyter
The 12-Step Program, developed by AA, has been used by countless individuals and copied by many organizations to help people get their lives on track. Here, we present the 12-Step Program for business owners when dealing with their online marketing campaigns.
Step 1: Admit you are powerless without SEO and that your online marketing has become unmanageable.
Step 2: Believe that a power greater than yourself is needed to optimize your website for rankings and conversions.
Step 3: Make a decision to turn your website and online marketing strategies over to the care of an SEO, as you choose to hire him/her.
Step 4: Let your SEO make a searching and fearless inventory of your website.
Step 5: Admit to your SEO, yourself, and your developers the exact nature of your website's wrongs.
Step 6: Be entirely ready to have your SEO fix these website defects.
Step 7: Humbly ask God to remove your tunnel vision and "I know better than you" biases, and trust that your SEO knows their stuff.
Step 8: Review your SEO's list of all website marketing violations and be willing to correct those which they cannot.
Step 9: Correct all violations immediately, except when doing so will disrupt your success during critical seasons. Do those things when disruption will be minimized.
Step 10: Continue to allow your SEO to take inventory of your site and, when new issues are found, promptly fix said issues.
Step 11: Seek, through SEO/PPC and Social Media, the improvement of your conversion rates, and return on investment. Continue to build communication with your online marketer and give them the power to carry out their recommendations.
Step 12: Have a financial awakening as a result of these steps, and carry the message of value your SEO/M has provided through continuous recommendations throughout the business community.
Be sure and visit our small business news site.
Source: http://www.searchengineguide.com/stoney-degeyter/the-12step-program-for-online-marketing.php
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Another attempt for Google on the Social Networking Realm
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Microsoft OS on Google Company Computers ? Banned!
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Austin Police Department set to roll out new Bat Bus
The city agreed to buy a breath alcohol testing bus so officers don’t have to make the trip to the county jail.
The new Bat Bus will have to stations for Intoxilyzer 5000s as well as workstations for the officers to review the videotapes of the incident and prepare the offense reports.
Futher, there will be City Marshalls on hand to transport folks who have been arrested to the jail facility. This will allow officers like the one they call “the Machine” to get back on the street faster. The Machine currently holds the record for making 7 arrests in one night.
“Typical, DWI arrest takes between three and four hours,” Austin police Cmdr. Patti Robertson said. “It narrows it down. Takes off 3/4 of that time. They have all the paperwork, turns it over to the officers on the bus.”
DWI has become big business in Austin.
“We are at 800 per 100,000 people for DWI arrests…” Robertson said. “What that means is we are ……the highest in the state for DWI arrests. I think that speaks volumes.” It certainly does.
There are approximately 10 different agencies in and around Austin that are all competing for grant money related to DWIs. The question then becomes, “Could this possibly motivate officer to make more and more arrests?” My belief……ABSOLUTELY!
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